Scroll down for detailed results from the Newsday/News 12/Siena College poll of the New York State Senate District 3 race. The poll, conducted Sept. 28-30, surveyed 432 likely voters via landline and cellphone and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points.
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To see raw data, click here.
In a key battle for control of the state Senate, Republican Tom Croci has opened a wide lead over Democrat Adrienne Esposito in New York’s 3rd Senate District, in part because she’s struggling with name recognition and he is getting cross-party and independent support, according to a Newsday/News 12/Siena College poll.
Croci leads Esposito 56 percent to 29 percent among likely voters in the Suffolk County-based district, with 15 percent choosing “don’t know/no opinion.” The survey of 432 likely voters was taken Sept. 28-30. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points.
To see more results, click here.
The survey also found Democratic Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo leading Republican challenger Rob Astorino in the district, 51 percent to 38 percent. Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins registered 3 percent.
Esposito and Croci are vying to replace Sen. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley), who is leaving the state Senate to run for Congress against Rep. Tim Bishop (D-Southampton). The district covers parts of Islip and Brookhaven towns and was a swing area for control of the Senate in 2008 and 2010.
With no incumbent running this time, the fight is expected to be heated between Croci, the Islip Town supervisor, and Esposito, a long-time activist who heads Citizens Campaign for the Environment, a nonprofit group. The district is 35 percent Democratic and 31 percent Republican. But Republicans historically have voted in larger numbers than Democrats in the district, according to Siena.
With five weeks to go, Croci has surged to the lead because of three main factors, said Steve Greenberg, spokesman for the Siena College poll.
Esposito isn’t well-known to voters. While her favorable/unfavorable rating is even (19-17), 64 percent of respondents said they didn’t know enough about Esposito to form an opinion.
Croci has strong and positive name recognition. Fifty percent of those surveyed said they had a favorable impression of the Republican; 20 percent said unfavorable. In contrast to Esposito, just 31 percent said they didn’t know enough about Croci to have an opinion.
Croci has stronger support among his party base and is getting more non-party support than Esposito. Croci is winning Republicans by a 10-1 ratio, but Esposito is winning Democrats by 2-1. Twenty-eight percent of Democrats said they preferred Croci. He also has a big lead among independent and minor-party voters, 53-31 percent.
About 46 percent of respondents said they are absolutely certain of their Senate choice; another 40 percent said they were “fairly certain.”
“Is it over? No,” Greenberg said. “But just five weeks out, she’s got a lot of work to do to close a big gap.”
“We know the only result that matters is who wins on Election Day,” said Croci spokeswoman Christine Geed. “Until then, we will continue running an aggressive campaign about Tom Croci being the only candidate with integrity who can create jobs and improve the quality of life for the families of Long Island.”
An Esposito spokesman said it still early in the race and sought to tie Croci to the Roberto Clemente Park dumping scandal.
“This campaign is only just beginning to heat up, and every new day brings new, disturbing revelations about Tom Croci’s role in the toxic dumping scandal that has engulfed our community,” Mike Fricchione, Esposito campaign manager, said. “While Croci and his extremist Conservative Party allies have flooded the 3rd District with money . . . he will not be able to hide from his record of raising taxes, standing in the way of women’s rights, and allowing a campaign contributor to dump toxic waste all over our parks and playgrounds.”
Artie Schlett, 59, a Brookhaven Republican, said he will support Croci because he likes him and Democrats have had too much control, especially on a national level. “I feel the balance is upset right now,” Schlett said. Of Croci, he said: “He has a reasonable track record of what he’s done for Islip.”
Democrats have said they will protect Long Island’s interests and enact “progressive” legislation that Republican senators have blocked. That’s part of why Robin Cassidy, 56, an Islip Democrat, backs Esposito.
“I’ve known her a long time, and she’s always fighting for the environment and clean water,” Cassidy said. “She’s a centrist at heart. I think she’ll bring the voice of the people to Albany first, not big business.”
Scroll down for detailed results from the Newsday/News 12/Siena College poll of the New York State senate District 7 race. The poll, conducted Sept. 28 to 29, surveyed 441 likely voters via landline and cellphone and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points.
To see raw data, click here.
To read the story, click here.
State Sen. Jack Martins leads Democratic opponent Adam Haber by 25 points in the race for New York’s 7th Senate District, according to a Newsday/News 12/Siena College poll released Wednesday.
Fifty-six percent of those surveyed said they would vote for Martins (R-Mineola), a two-term incumbent, while 31 percent said they would vote for Haber, an East Hills businessman. Fourteen percent were undecided.
The poll was conducted with 441 likely voters on Sept. 28-29, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points. To see more results, click here.
Martins is backed by 82 percent of Republicans, 33 percent of Democrats and 57 percent of independents/third-party voters. Poll results show Haber has the support of 53 percent of Democrats, nine percent of Republicans, and 30 percent of independents/third-party voters.
“Not only is Martins at this point doing a fantastic job of getting support among his Republican base, he gets a third of all Democrats, and more than half of independents — that is a strong coalition,” said Donald P. Levy, director of the Siena Research Institute.
Levy said Haber, a Roslyn school board member who ran unsuccessfully in the Democratic primary for Nassau County executive last year, has “certainly got a big hill to climb in terms of name recognition.”
Martins’ spokesman E. O’Brien Murray said in a statement that the results “show the voters know as a husband and father of four girls, Senator Martins knows what matters to Nassau families. He has worked hard to cap property taxes and lower income taxes for the middle class, created jobs, delivered more state aid for schools, and make life better for Nassau County residents.”
Haber spokesman Jacob Tugendrajch said that the results come as “campaign season is just getting started” and that Haber has more time to connect with undecided voters.
“As TV ads and direct mail balance out over the last month of the campaign, Nassau voters will see that Adam Haber’s message of lower taxes, women’s rights and fully funded schools are the clear choice for this district,” Tugendrajch said.
The poll found that Martins has higher name recognition than Haber: 55 percent of respondents said they were unaware of Haber or had no opinion on his candidacy, compared with 35 percent who had no opinion about Martins.
Addressing the name-recognition issue, Levy said, “We have seen these races change from September to Election Day. Certainly Haber has an opportunity; there are more registered Democrats than Republicans in the district. . . . Martins won his last race by not a large margin, but he’s done what appears to be a good enough job to endear himself to most voters.”
Property taxes were the top issue among respondents, with 29 percent calling it the most important issue lawmakers in Albany needed to address — 18 percent said job creation; 14 percent said education and 11 percent said state taxes.
Thomas Jannazzo , a Franklin Square Republican, said he planned to vote for Martins because he has met him at several community events.
“He’s an honest, down-to-earth guy,” said Jannazzo, 46, a former restaurant manager who is currently on disability leave following a back injury. “He takes the time to listen to people and their problems.”
Vijay Goswamy, 68, a retired health care administrator who lives in Hicksville, said that as a Democrat, he plans to vote for Haber after meeting him at a local Indian-American festival in August. “He was very approachable,” Goswamy said.
The Senate has been under the bipartisan control of the chamber’s Republicans and five Democrats who broke from party ranks in 2011 to form the Independent Democratic Conference.
Fifty-nine percent of respondents said they favor keeping that coalition in control, while 23 percent said they would like to see Republicans in control, and 13 percent favored Democrats regaining full control.
The district covers central Nassau and North Shore communities, including Mineola, Hicksville and Port Washington.
