Sen. Ted Cruz, Gov. John Kasich and Donald Trump campaign in New York.

Donald Trump will win New York. Here’s how it matters.

Donald Trump is likely to win the popular vote and most of the delegates in the New York primary on April 19.

But Sen. Ted Cruz and Gov. John Kasich are fighting for every delegate, in hopes of forcing a brokered convention in July.

The map below shows the Congressional districts where Cruz and Kasich have the best hopes of earning delegates.

Trump likely to win 3 delegates
Kasich could win 1 delegate
Cruz could win 1 delegate
Cruz, Kasich could split delegates

Our delegate estimates are based on interviews with from GOP leaders, political operatives and elected officials, as well as polling data. We will update our calculations as the New York primary unfolds.

What will determine Donald Trump’s fate

The scope of Trump’s sweep in New York will come down to the organizational skills of Republican county leaders and the backing of local elected officials.

Trump is sure win a giant share of the popular vote statewide, powered by high turnout on Long Island and in Buffalo. Suffolk County went for Mitt Romney in 2012 and went for GOP gubernatorial candidate Rob Astorino over incumbent Andrew Cuomo in 2014. Buffalo is the base for Carl Paladino, a big Trump booster.

John Kasich is in second place in those regions. The Ohio Governor has little money, but is quietly meeting with local leaders and is hoping to win a handful of delegates in New York City’s majority-minority and heavily Democrat districts. Kasich is also a contender in more moderate Republican enclaves in the upper Hudson Valley, and around the Albany and Syracuse area.

Ted Cruz is trailing in statewide polls, but may be able to harvest delegates in Staten Island, Orthodox Jewish areas of Brooklyn, in the sparsely populated North County, the Rochester area and the Southern Tier.

How GOP delegates are awarded in New York

The state has 95 Republican delegates. Three each go to the state’s 27 congressional districts, and the other 14 are awarded based on statewide voting totals.

Any candidate who gets more than 50 percent of the votes cast in a district gets all three delegates from that district. If no one gets 50 percent in the district this year, the leader will get two and the second-place finisher will get one.

What this really means is that, while Donald Trump seems to be leading the state by a huge margin, Ted Cruz or John Kasich can pick up a delegate in any district where they can come in second by hitting 20 percent AND TRUMP FAILS TO REACH 50 PERCENT. That matters in a race where Trump is fighting tooth and nail to get to a national total of 1,237 delegates.”

The other 14 “at large” delegates all go to the candidate who gets more than 50 percent of the popular vote statewide. If no one does, they are divided proportionally among any candidates who receive more than 20 percent of the total votes cast.